Wednesday, 13 October 2010

The Challenges Ahead



So at long last, John W. Henry and New England Sports Ventures have completed their purchase of Liverpool Football Club, assuming control from Tom Hicks and George Gillett, and ushering in what we hope and pray will be a new, and prosperous, era for Liverpool.

Liverpool's on-field struggles under the previous regime - falling from reaching two UEFA Champions League finals in three years, to ending last season in a bitterly disappointing 7th place in the Premier League - was overshadowed perhaps only by massive debt burdened onto the club, and the crippling loan repayments which crippled the club's financial well-being and undermined both transfer dealings and hopes of building a new stadium on Stanley Park.

But, for all of the difficulties suffered by the club and it's outstanding support over the past three years, the club has been, by any measure, remarkably successful commercially. From a marketing perspective, the appointment of Ian Ayre was particularly astute, as his stewardship over the club's marketing, sponsorship, and commercial affairs has driven the club's revenues to new highs, seen record breaking sponsorship deals agreed, and furthered Liverpool's push to be amongst the biggest and most successful world football brands.

Unfortunately, the benefits of this growth and development have never been fully felt by the club, due largely to the mismanagement of the club at the highest level, and the massive debt leveraged onto the club by the ownership group. So the question now is, under new ownership, and without the debt payment commitments that have saddled the club's finances over the past two years, just how big can Liverpool grow? And perhaps just as importantly, wait challenges await NESV upon entering Anfield?

At first glance, there are a number of similarities that can be drawn between NESV's acquisition of Liverpool and their purchase of the Boston Red Sox in 2001. Both are successful, massively supported on both a community and an international basis, steeped in tradition and history. Parallels too can be drawn between the cities of Boston and Liverpool. But equally, NESV acquired both storied clubs at a crucial and difficult time, with questions regarding both clubs' competitive prospects, the state of stadia, and chronic mismanagement over recent years.

So what lessons can we take from NESV's stewardship of the Red Sox thus far? And what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for Liverpool? Well on the evidence of both this fall's interaction between Henry and the Red Sox nation (Boston's ownership took out a full page newspaper ad to apologize for the club missing the postseason), and the early interviews Henry has conducted regarding Liverpool, and his outreach to fans through Twitter, it would appear that regaining the support, trust, and confidence of Liverpool's incredible international support is a key step forward. Under Hicks and Gillett, that trust and interaction was lost, with a growing contempt for the owners leading to protests, constant speculation, and persistent questions over the club's future. Such negativity surrounding Liverpool can only have hindered the club's commercial potential, as well as adding to the performance pressure on the players. Removing the barriers that exist between the supporters and the club is crucial to Liverpool's success, and early indications are that public and community relations will be an important first step for NESV on Merseyside.

The second important issue to be resolved by NESV will be the decision to renovate Anfield or construct a new stadium. NESV's portfolio and past history in sport suggests that the new owners won't rush into any decisions, and have experience both with redeveloping existing stadia, and building brand new, state of the art facilities. The City of Liverpool have already gone on record voicing concern over NESV's decision to consider all of their options, including renovation, believing a new 60,000+ seat stadium in Stanley Park to be integral in the regeneration the area. Under similar circumstances, Henry et al decided against a new stadium upon taking over the Red Sox, and instead invested heavily and intelligently into Fenway Park, one of the most historic and iconic ballparks in the world. However, around Fenway the ownership group have also redeveloped much of surrounding area, making Fenway as much a destination as a stadium, capitalizing on non-matchday revenues, and creating added value for the gameday experience.

How NESV will approach the Anfield/Stanley Park situation will ultimately define the success of their ownership of the club. Currently Liverpool earn millions less per match than rivals such as Manchester United or Arsenal, due largely to a lack of corporate suites, limited capacity, and outdated facilities. Raising matchday revenues, and regenerating the local community in order to drive non-matchday revenues (particularly as Liverpool will enjoy half the home fixtures the Red Sox currently do) will be a key area of concern, and one worth watching.

Sunday, 10 October 2010

Happy Thanksgiving!

To everyone back home in Canada, Happy Thanksgiving! Please save some stuffing for me...

As seems to be becoming a regular occurrence, all has been quiet on the blog front of late. There have been a few things I've been tempted to post, a few stories/opinions/details about the radio silence that I considered voicing, but I elected against it. Work on my ambushing research, as well as a number of concerns outside of work and research and the like, have kept me away from BSM a bit longer than I would have liked, and certainly longer than I had planned. But, it's time to move forward.

For anyone who knows me or follows the blog, it will likely come as little surprise that I have two great loves in my life: hockey, and football (or soccer for my turkey-eating friends and family). This past week may well prove to have been a fantastic week on both accounts, though to what extent remains to be argued in a British courtroom this week. As well as stepping back out onto the ice and beginning the new season finally on Monday and Tuesday, it was announced this week that New England Sports Ventures, the owners of the Boston Red Sox and a number of other top sports properties state-side, has agreed a sale for my beloved Liverpool FC, pending a legal battle between the club's current beleaguered owners and the LFC board.

Should the sale go through, and court find in favour of the board, NESV's arrival at Anfield has been suggested as ushering in a new way of thinking into Liverpool's football operations, and extending the current growth of statistics and performance measures currently being used at clubs like Arsenal. NESV, who turned the Red Sox's fortunes by employing one of the founding fathers of sabremetrics in baseball, and a GM who studied under Moneyball's biggest proponent, Billy Beane, may well attempt to employ the same measures and metrics into Liverpool's football operations, it has been suggested, following the template which brought the Red Sox their first World Series' since the Curse of the Bambino.

Whilst in baseball, the use of metrics and moneyball-style performance tracking and measurement has become increasingly common, in other sports it remains a growing trend, but an interesting one. How it will impact and translate to a sport such as football, which is much more free-flowing and dynamic than more statistics-friendly sports like baseball remains to be investigated in earnest, but if the use of metrics in hockey are any indication, there would appear to be some value in its application. Over at Kukla's Korner (mandatory reading for any self-respecting hockey fan), the use of sabremetrics in hockey has been employed and studied increasingly over the past year, providing some suggestion of the value it may offer football clubs.

That said, dynamic sports such as football and hockey remain particularly difficult to measure in statistics alone. Greater exploration of the applicability and nature of metrics in sports such as hockey I think would be extremely useful, and I look forward it. Whilst we can measure a goalie's save percentage, and even adjust the percentage for a number of factors which may prove more telling in evaluating performance, can we or will we also adjust for the competition? For the players in front of the goalie? For the difficulty of shots? For the situation/context of shots and saves? All of this is possible, and how much it is in use already I don't know, but I think the deeper we look into performance measures in this way, and the better we explore and understand WHY metrics are used, and HOW, the more we may understand just how valuable NESV's secret weapon may be in restoring Liverpool to past glories.